Updates as of April 9, 2025: Most reciprocal tariffs have been paused for 90 days, while tariffs on imports from China have increased to 145%. The baseline 10% tariffs for most other countries remain in effect.

Shahla Karimi - April 4, 2025

Jewelry Armageddon? How New Tariffs Could Skyrocket Fine Jewelry Prices in 2025

An insider's deep dive into the tariffs reshaping diamonds, gold, platinum, and gemstones pricing—and why you'll pay more for sparkle this year.

Photo by Andy Zalkin for Shahla Karimi

This comprehensive analysis is the result of my detailed prompts and meticulous research conducted alongside Open Ai’s Deep Research functionality, exploring how recent U.S. tariff policies will significantly impact fine jewelry pricing over the next 12 months. I've broken down every component crucial to fine jewelry manufacturing—including gold, diamonds, platinum, and colored gemstones—examining how tariffs from key supplier countries will reshape the market.

Here's what's inside:

• Key imported materials: Where they come from and how reliant the U.S. jewelry industry is on foreign supplies.
• New tariff breakdowns: Exactly how much more you'll pay based on country and component.
• Industry impacts: How jewelry manufacturers, retailers, and consumers will feel the pinch (hint: it’s immediate).
• Price predictions: Month-by-month forecasts on how much fine jewelry will cost you over the coming year.
• Possible tariff reversals: Realistic timelines and scenarios for relief.

This research will arm you with crucial insights to prepare for what's ahead.

Impact of U.S. Tariffs on Fine Jewelry Materials and Industry

Import Reliance and Key Sources for Jewelry Materials

The U.S. fine jewelry sector relies heavily on imported raw materials, though the degree varies by component:

• Gold: The U.S. mines a substantial amount of gold domestically (170 metric tons in 2023) and recycles significant gold (~36% of supply from scrap). Net import reliance for gold has been effectively 0% in recent years, meaning domestic supply meets or exceeds consumption. However, the U.S. still imports large quantities of gold for refining and manufacturing. From 2019–2022, the top sources of U.S. gold imports were Switzerland (~26% of import volume), Mexico (~18%), Canada (~16%), and Colombia (~8%). These imports include gold dore (partially refined gold) from Mexico and South America and bullion from Switzerland and Canada.
• Diamonds: Virtually 100% of the natural diamonds used in U.S. jewelry are imported. The U.S. has no significant domestic diamond mining or cutting industry, so it depends entirely on foreign supply. India is the dominant source for polished (cut) diamonds – India is the world’s largest diamond cutting hub, processing 9 out of 10 diamonds globally. A large portion of U.S. diamond imports (by value) come via India. Other key sources include Belgium and the European Union (EU) (Antwerp remains a major trading center), Israel, and the United Arab Emirates, which together handle a substantial share of the international diamond trade. For example, India’s gem and jewelry exports to the U.S. were about $10 billion (30% of India’s $32 billion industry) in the last fiscal year, underscoring India’s importance to the U.S. diamond supply. Smaller volumes of rough diamonds are imported from primary producers like Botswana, Canada, and South Africa, but those usually get cut overseas before entering the U.S.
• Platinum: The U.S. is ~85% import-reliant on platinum for its industrial and jewelry needs. Domestic platinum mining is minimal (only a few thousand ounces from a Montana mine and as byproduct in other mining). The majority of platinum (and other platinum-group metals, PGMs) is imported. About 45% of U.S. platinum imports (unwrought and semi-fabricated) come from South Africa, the world’s largest producer. Other significant suppliers are trading hubs in Europe: Belgium (~12% of U.S. platinum imports), Germany (~10%), and Italy (~9%). Russia was historically a major PGM source, but its share has diminished due to geopolitical factors. (Notably, all unwrought PGMs were previously imported duty-free under normal trade relations.)
• Colored Gemstones: The U.S. has very limited domestic production of colored gemstones (only small-scale mining of stones like turquoise, tourmaline, or Montana sapphires). Essentially nearly 100% of colored gemstones (rubies, sapphires, emeralds, and others) used in U.S. fine jewelry are imported. These gems come from a diverse set of countries, often via international trading centers. In 2023, U.S. imports of non-diamond precious stones were valued around $2.33 billion. The major suppliers were: Thailand (about $404 million, a hub for cutting rubies and sapphires), India ($361 M, including Jaipur’s stone-cutting industry), Sri Lanka ($196 M, known for sapphires), Switzerland ($174 M, a trading center for high-end gems), and Brazil ($121 M, source of emeralds, amethyst, etc.). Other important sources include Colombia (the primary source of emeralds), Myanmar (rubies, though Burmese rubies are subject to U.S. sanctions), Mozambique (rubies), Tanzania (tanzanite), and Madagascar (sapphires), among others. In summary, the U.S. is almost entirely import-dependent for colored gems, with key supply chains running through South Asia and other gem-rich regions.

(See Table 1 below for a summary of import reliance and top sources.)

Component Import Reliance (% of U.S. use)

Top Source Countries (share of imports)

Gold~0% net reliance (self-sufficient)*Switzerland (~26%), Mexico (18%), Canada (16%), Colombia (8%)

Diamonds~100% (fully import-dependent) India (dominant, cuts ~90% of world’s diamonds), Belgium/EU, Israel, UAE, Botswana

Platinum~85% import-reliant South Africa (~45%), Belgium (12%), Germany (10%), Italy (9%)

Colored Gems~100% (fully import-dependent)Thailand (~17%**), India (~15%), Sri Lanka (~8%), Switzerland (~7%), Brazil (~5%) (also Colombia, Myanmar, etc.)

*(The U.S. produces and recycles a large amount of gold domestically, often exporting surplus gold. However, it still imports gold for refining and industry usage.)

*(*Shares of colored gem imports are approximate, based on 2023 trade value.)

New Tariffs and Affected Source Countries

Recent U.S. trade policy changes have introduced broad tariffs on imports of these materials. In early April 2025, the U.S. government announced a sweeping tariff package, citing “reciprocal” trade measures. Key points include a baseline 10% tariff on imports from most countries and additional country-specific tariff rates on nations with which the U.S. has large trade deficits. This policy marks a significant shift, as previously many jewelry materials had low or zero tariffs. The countries most relevant to the jewelry supply chain that are now affected and their new U.S. tariff rates are:

• India: A 26–27% tariff on all imports from India. India, being a major jewelry and gem exporter, is heavily impacted. (Several reports cite a 26% or 27% rate – the announced rate was 27%, slightly higher than expected.) This hits Indian diamonds, gemstones, and gold jewelry entering the U.S. with a 26–27% duty, where previously many of these had no duty or low duty.
• China: A 34% additional tariff was placed on Chinese goods, on top of existing tariffs already in effect. China was already facing about 20% tariffs on many goods from earlier trade measures; the new policy brings the effective tariff on Chinese imports to roughly 54% in total. While China is not the top supplier of diamonds or colored gems, it is a significant source of finished jewelry, lab-grown diamonds, and jewelry components, so this steep tariff greatly raises costs for any Chinese-origin jewelry products.
• European Union: 20% tariff on imports from EU countries. This affects Belgium (a key diamond trading hub), Italy (a major gold jewelry exporter), France (luxury jewelry/watches), and other EU sources. Prior to this, EU-origin jewelry and gems typically entered under low MFN rates (e.g. 0% on loose diamonds, ~5% on gold jewelry). Now a blanket 20% applies.
• Vietnam: 46% tariff. Vietnam has a growing jewelry manufacturing sector and exports gems/jewelry to the U.S. This high tariff will curb those imports.
• Botswana: 37% tariff. Botswana is a leading producer of rough diamonds (often sold via De Beers). This tariff could impact rough or polished diamonds coming directly from Botswana. (It is notable because Botswana is not a traditional “trade rival,” but the U.S. runs a goods trade deficit due to diamond imports.)
• Thailand: 36% tariff. Thailand, a major source of colored stones and fine jewelry, now faces this steep tariff. Thai sapphires, rubies, and the many finished jewelry pieces made in Thailand will become much more expensive in the U.S. market.
• Switzerland: 31% tariff. Switzerland exports luxury watches and high-end jewelry to the U.S., as well as refined gold. Swiss jewelry and watch imports will carry a 31% duty. (Notably, gold bullion from Switzerland is exempt as a raw material – see next section – but finished jewelry is not.)
• Israel: 17% tariff. Israel is a major center for cutting polished diamonds. Israeli diamonds, which were previously duty-free, now face a 17% tariff entering the U.S.
• Other countries: Virtually all other countries now face at least the base 10% import tariff unless exempted by a trade agreement. For example, Sri Lanka, Brazil, Canada, Mexico and others not listed above would be subject to the 10% rate in general. However, under the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), goods that meet origin rules from Canada and Mexico are exempt from these new tariffs. This means North American-origin precious materials (e.g. Canadian-mined diamonds or Mexican gold dore) could enter tariff-free if properly qualified. Countries like Sri Lanka or Brazil (important for colored gems) are not specifically targeted beyond the 10% general tariff.

In summary, many of the **top suppliers for jewelry materials – India, the EU (Belgium/Italy), Thailand, etc. – are now subject to punitive tariffs ranging roughly 20–27% or higher, on top of the universal 10% base. This is a stark change from the near-zero tariffs that loose gems and precious metals previously enjoyed. U.S. importers now must contend with double-digit duties for nearly all imported diamonds, gemstones, and jewelry components.

Tariff Rates by Component Under the New Policy

Each key jewelry component is now being tariffed differently under the new policy. Below is a breakdown of how the tariffs apply to gold, diamonds, platinum, and colored gems, compared to the prior status:

• Gold: Raw gold (bullion, gold bars, and most unwrought forms) remains duty-free even under the new tariffs. The tariff policy carved out exemptions for 12 precious metal categories, including gold bullion and dore, recognizing these as raw inputs. This means a U.S. jewelry manufacturer can still import gold bars or grain from abroad (e.g. from Canada or Switzerland) without paying the new tariff. However, gold jewelry and semi-finished gold articles are not exempt. Under the old policy, finished gold jewelry carried a modest MFN tariff (typically ~5.5% to 7% depending on the item). Now, with the baseline 10% and reciprocal tariffs, gold jewelry faces roughly 15–17% duty from most countries and as high as 32–34% if from a targeted country like India or China. In effect, an 18K gold ring made in India that used to face ~5% duty will now be taxed around 32%. Articles of gold (e.g. mountings, findings) similarly will see total tariffs in the ~30%+ range. (Gold jewelry from Mexico or Canada could be exempt via USMCA, but those countries are not large exporters of finished jewelry to the U.S.) In short, gold metal itself is tariff-free, but gold jewelry products now carry heavy tariffs.
• Diamonds: Loose natural diamonds (whether rough or cut) historically entered the U.S. duty-free – the U.S. had a 0% MFN tariff on unset diamonds. That remains the case in the tariff schedule before the new policy. Under the new regime, loose diamonds now incur a 10% base tariff for all sources, and much higher for diamonds from certain countries. India, which supplies the bulk of polished diamonds, is now subject to a 27% tariff on diamonds (since India’s 27% covers all products including gems). That means an Indian-cut diamond shipped directly to the U.S. will face 27% duty (effectively adding over a quarter to its cost). Diamonds from Belgium or other EU countries would face the EU rate (20%), from Botswana 37%, from Israel 17%, etc., as per the country rates noted above. Example: A $10,000 polished diamond from Antwerp (EU) would incur about $2,000 in tariffs, whereas the same stone from Mumbai would incur $2,700. These tariffs are unprecedented in the diamond trade. (To avoid these, some rerouting could occur – e.g. Indian diamonds sent via UAE might only pay 10% if UAE isn’t singled out – but rules of origin likely still attribute them to India.) Summary: Loose diamonds now carry anywhere from 10% up to ~27% tariff, where previously they had 0%. This raises the cost of the primary material in diamond jewelry significantly.
• Platinum: Raw platinum and other PGMs remain tariff-exempt as well. The policy explicitly exempts “raw platinum” along with gold and silver bullion from the new duties. So importing platinum sponge or ingots from South Africa, for instance, is still duty-free (which aligns with the previous 0% MFN rate on unwrought platinum). However, platinum jewelry and worked products are subject to tariffs just like gold jewelry. Before, platinum jewelry (rings, etc.) had a similar import duty (~5–7%). Under the new policy, finished platinum jewelry sees tariffs around 15–17% (with the 10% base) and up to 32–34% from targeted sources. So a platinum wedding band made in Thailand or India could face ~32% import tax now (where it was ~5% prior). Palladium and other PGM jewelry would be treated similarly. In essence, raw platinum metal: free; platinum jewelry: ~15–34% tariff depending on origin.
• Colored Gemstones: Most loose colored gemstones (rubies, sapphires, emeralds, etc.) entered the U.S. at 0% duty under normal trade (the U.S. does not usually tax loose gem imports). There were some exceptions/complexities (certain gem types or sizes had minor duties), but generally the tariff was zero for unset precious stones. Now, the new tariffs impose a heavy cost on these gems. Precious and semi-precious gemstones under HS codes 7103.91 and 7103.99.10 (which include most rubies, sapphires, emeralds, and other stones) will be subject to a 27% tariff. Some gem categories (likely specific “other” stones under 7103.99.50) are set to 37.5%. This higher rate could apply to certain semiprecious stones or refined gem materials that previously had a small tariff – the 37.5% suggests a 10.5% original duty plus 27% added. For practical purposes, nearly all colored gems now face about a 27% import tax. For example, a sapphire from Sri Lanka or an emerald from Colombia, which had no U.S. duty before, will now cost 27% more to bring in (unless those countries somehow get an exemption, which they currently do not aside from the base 10%). Synthetic gemstones and lab-grown diamonds are also hit: tariffs on polished lab-grown diamonds and lab-grown gems are rising to roughly 27%–34% as well, similar to natural stones. (Cultured pearls are also now 27% tariffed, whereas they were duty-free before.) In summary, colored gemstones and lab-grown stones now carry high tariffs (~27–37%), which is a dramatic change for an input that used to be untaxed.

In effect, the new tariff policy penalizes value-added jewelry materials (cut gems, finished jewelry) while sparing raw bullion. This is likely by design – raw metals are often considered industrial inputs and exempt, whereas the cutting/polishing labor done abroad is what the tariff policy is targeting. Still, since U.S. jewelry manufacturers rely on imported gemstones (and often imported castings or jewelry parts), the cost structure for producing or selling fine jewelry in the U.S. is rising sharply across the board.

Effects on Domestic Jewelry Manufacturing and Retail

The imposition of these tariffs is reverberating through the U.S. jewelry industry. Below we analyze the likely effects on domestic jewelry manufacturing and on retailers/consumers, particularly in the fine jewelry segment:

Impact on U.S. Jewelry Manufacturing

• Higher Input Costs: U.S. manufacturers who make jewelry domestically will face higher costs for crucial inputs – especially diamonds and gemstones. Even though gold/platinum bullion is tariff-free, gems comprise a large share of fine jewelry’s cost. A jeweler or manufacturer importing loose diamonds or emeralds must now pay 10–27% more for those stones. That directly increases production costs. Jewelers of America (a trade association) notes that tariffs paid by U.S. importers “ultimately get passed on to consumers” as higher prices. In the short term, manufacturers may try to absorb some costs, but most will have to raise prices for wholesale buyers (retailers) to stay viable.
• Squeezed Margins and Cash Flow: The tariff must be paid at import, which affects cash flow. For example, diamond dealers often supply jewelers on memo (consignment) with payment only after a sale. With a 26% tariff on Indian diamonds, “Who’s going to memo stuff when they have to pay 26% up front?” lamented one major jewelry manufacturer. This indicates many U.S. manufacturers/wholesalers will have to either finance much higher upfront costs or curtail their inventory imports. Profit margins, already thin in manufacturing, will be squeezed as material costs jump. The “labor cost advantage” that U.S. jewelers had when importing duty-free stones will erode – meaning the cost savings from duty-free imports that helped offset higher U.S. labor rates are gone.
• Reduced Competition from Imports: On the upside for domestic producers, imported finished jewelry from overseas now carries hefty tariffs, which makes those imports more expensive in the U.S. market. This could give U.S.-made jewelry a relative price advantage for the first time in years. For instance, a gold engagement ring made in India that used to undercut a New York–made ring on price may now end up more expensive after tariffs. This dynamic could drive some retailers to source more jewelry domestically to avoid tariffs. It might also encourage global brands to do final assembly or setting work in the U.S. (though the gems would still incur tariffs). In essence, American manufacturers have an opportunity to capture market share if they can scale up, but it comes amidst rising costs for the materials they need.
• Supply Chain Adjustments: We may see manufacturers seek alternative sourcing to mitigate tariffs. This could mean buying diamonds from non-tariffed routes (e.g. sourcing more Canadian or Namibian diamonds, or using suppliers in countries with only 10% tariff instead of 27%). There is talk in the industry of shifting some diamond trading to places like Dubai or putting more effort into recycling diamonds from the secondary market. Manufacturers might also increase use of lab-grown diamonds, especially those produced domestically, since U.S.-made lab diamonds wouldn’t incur import tariffs (though imported lab-grown stones do have tariffs). Furthermore, some companies could attempt nearshoring – for example, partnering with suppliers in Canada or Mexico (USMCA partners) to do gemstone cutting or jewelry assembly so that products qualify as North American and avoid tariffs. These adjustments, however, take time and have limitations (not all processes can be easily moved).
• Domestic Gem Cutting and Alternatives: Historically, the U.S. has not had a large gemstone cutting industry (due to labor costs). These tariffs provide a new incentive to do more value-add domestically – e.g. cutting some diamonds in the U.S. or Canada, or training more gem cutters for colored stones domestically – to bypass the tariff on imported cut stones. However, building that capacity would take significant time and investment. In the near term, it’s more likely manufacturers will delay purchases, scale down production, or accept lower margins while hoping the trade situation improves. Some may focus on designs that use fewer or smaller gems, or promote pieces with U.S.-sourced stones (like Montana sapphires) to differentiate. Overall, domestic manufacturing could benefit in relative terms (vs. imports) but still faces serious headwinds from higher input costs and supply disruptions.

Impact on Retail and Consumers (Fine Jewelry Market)

• Rising Retail Prices: As tariffs trickle down, consumers will face higher price tags for fine jewelry. Importers and manufacturers pass on costs to retailers, and retailers will in turn mark up the new, higher base cost. Jewelers of America warns that with consumers facing increased costs “on top of existing inflation,” they are likely to cut back on discretionary spending such as jewelry. For example, an engagement ring that would have been priced at $5,000 may now be $5,500–$6,000 due to higher diamond and gemstone costs. Retailers typically operate on fixed keystone markups, so a 10–20% cost increase gets translated to roughly a 10–20% higher shelf price. Shoppers will notice these price jumps within weeks or months as new inventory replaces older stock. This dampens demand, especially in price-sensitive market segments.
• Short-Term Inventory Strategies: In the immediate term (the next few months), retailers with inventory already in the country (imported before tariffs) might be insulated. Some may even rush to stock up just before tariffs hit – indeed, there were reports of Indian suppliers urging U.S. clients to complete purchases before the tariffs came into effect as a last-minute push. This could create a brief glut of pre-tariff inventory. However, once that inventory is sold, retailers will have to reorder at higher costs. We can expect by the summer of 2025 that most new stock on display reflects the tariff-inflated costs. Retailers might stagger price increases or offer promotions to soften the blow, but they cannot absorb such tariffs indefinitely given their thin margins.
• Product Mix and Sourcing Changes: Retailers may adapt their product mix to maintain accessible price points. This could mean featuring more pieces with alternative gemstones or smaller carat weights. For instance, jewelers might push moissanite or other diamond substitutes for cost-conscious bridal customers, or promote colored stones from countries with lower tariffs. There may also be a shift towards lab-grown diamonds (if domestically produced or already in stock) since they can offer larger sizes for the same price, mitigating the tariff effect (though note imported lab-grown stones also face ~27% tariff). Additionally, some retailers may increase purchases from U.S. manufacturers or local designers to avoid import costs – supporting the domestic shift mentioned above.
• Retailer Profitability: Jewelers will have to balance absorbing costs vs. passing them on. Large retailers (majors like Signet, Tiffany, etc.) have more leverage to negotiate prices and the scale to diversify sourcing. They might accept slightly lower margins for a period to avoid shocking consumers with full price increases all at once. Smaller independent retailers, however, often operate on tight margins and will feel the squeeze. They might not be able to stock as wide a selection because each item’s upfront cost is higher (especially one-of-a-kind pieces with expensive stones, where the tariff could be hundreds or thousands of dollars per item). This could lead to leaner inventories and fewer options for consumers at local stores.
• Consumer Behavior: Facing higher prices, consumers may delay or downgrade jewelry purchases. A customer who planned to buy a 2-carat diamond might opt for a 1.5-carat to stay on budget, or postpone the purchase hoping prices normalize. Middle-class consumers, already stretched by inflation in other areas, will likely reduce impulse jewelry buys and wait for sales. On the other hand, the high-end luxury segment (very wealthy clientele) may be less sensitive to price increases, so luxury jewelers might fare better than mid-market chains. That said, even luxury brands (many of which import from Europe) will have to navigate the tariffs or relocate production; some high-end maisons might see U.S. sales volume dip or need to adjust pricing strategies globally.
• Macroeconomic Effect: The jewelry industry doesn’t operate in isolation – these tariffs contribute to broader inflationary pressure. Analysts have noted that such sweeping tariffs are inflationary and could dent consumer sentiment overall. The National Retail Federation and other retail groups have been consistently opposed to tariffs, citing that they act as a tax on consumers and can push the economy towards recession if taken to extremes. If consumers spend less on jewelry, it impacts thousands of jewelry retailers and could lead to store closures or layoffs in the sector. The U.S. fine jewelry retail market, which was expecting growth, is now bracing for a slowdown as both price and potential retaliatory factors weigh in.

In summary, the tariffs are likely to raise costs at every step of the jewelry supply chain, from supplier to manufacturer to retailer to end customer. Domestic manufacturers get a mixed outcome: potentially more demand for “Made in USA” jewelry, but higher costs and supply headaches. Retailers face the challenge of pricing products higher without losing customers, in an environment where jewelry was already a discretionary spend vulnerable to inflationary cutbacks. The fine jewelry industry, which operates on global sourcing, finds itself forced to rethink sourcing and pricing strategies virtually overnight.

Timeline for Tariff Reversal or Negotiation

With such significant disruption, all eyes are on trade negotiations that might roll back these tariffs. Here’s an analysis of the earliest possible timeline and scenarios for reversal or reduction of the tariffs:

• Bilateral Talks in 2025: Several affected countries have already entered discussions with the U.S. to mitigate the tariffs. India and the United States are in talks aiming to clinch an early trade deal in the coming months. Indian officials expressed hope that an agreement could be reached “in the next few months” (potentially by mid to late 2025) that would reverse the U.S. tariffs on Indian gems and jewelry. The U.S. tariffs on India were explicitly framed as “reciprocal” – meaning the U.S. is pressuring India to lower its own high tariffs on U.S. goods (India currently charges 5% on imported polished diamonds and 20% on gold jewelry). A likely resolution could involve India reducing those import duties (making U.S. exports to India cheaper) in exchange for the U.S. removing or reducing the 26–27% tariff on Indian jewelry. If progress is swift, tariffs on Indian diamonds and jewelry could be scaled back before the end of 2025. Industry leaders in India are “pretty hopeful” for a deal by then, given the importance of the U.S. market.
• Negotiations with the EU and Others: The EU has also been vocal in opposing the tariffs. European officials have threatened retaliation, such as placing tariffs on U.S. exports of diamonds and gemstones. This tit-for-tat stance could spur negotiations. The U.S. may engage in talks with the EU to prevent an all-out trade war. A resolution might come through broader trade forums (like a G7 agreement or WTO consultations) or a mini-deal. Since the U.S. tariff on the EU (20%) is tied to “reciprocity,” one possibility is the U.S. offering to drop its tariff if the EU eliminates certain non-tariff barriers or taxes that the U.S. perceives as unfair. Timeline: EU-U.S. discussions could move quickly if the economic pain mounts – potentially some easing by late 2025 – but there’s no guarantee. The earliest formal opportunity might be a trade summit or the WTO ministerial, but given the political nature, it likely requires high-level diplomatic negotiation rather than litigation (the current U.S. administration is less inclined to heed WTO rulings).
• China and Others: Negotiations with China are more uncertain. The new 34% (total ~54%) tariff on China is part of a broader hardline stance. Unless China offers major concessions (on issues like intellectual property or market access), the U.S. may maintain or even increase these tariffs. A reversal could happen if there’s a change in U.S. administration or strategy. However, since China is not the primary supplier for fine jewelry materials (apart from being a source of some finished jewelry and synthetic gems), the jewelry industry might refocus sourcing elsewhere rather than await a China deal. For smaller but important suppliers like Thailand or Vietnam, bilateral talks could be pursued (possibly via ASEAN or Indo-Pacific trade frameworks). If those countries lobby effectively (Thailand, for instance, might seek relief given its long trade ties with the U.S. jewelry market), we could see partial exemptions or quota arrangements negotiated by 2026.
• Domestic Political Pressure: Inside the U.S., pressure from businesses and consumers could influence the timeline. If the tariffs are seen as hurting the economy or causing job losses (e.g. retailers closing, or large jewelry chains reporting sales slumps), the administration might rethink the policy sooner. Jewelry is a smaller sector, but it’s part of a larger retail industry, and groups like the NRF are campaigning against tariffs. JPMorgan analysts have warned that keeping these policies could push the U.S. economy into recession within the year. Such warnings might hasten behind-the-scenes efforts to dial back. Some analysts speculate that as other countries signal willingness to compromise (by cutting their own import levies), this conflict “will deescalate” in coming weeks or months. Indeed, if India or others promptly lower some tariffs on U.S. exports, the U.S. might suspend the reciprocal tariffs quickly in response. Thus, an optimistic scenario is incremental relief starting in the next few months (summer 2025) for certain countries if deals are struck.
• Elections and Policy Changes: Looking further out, if the tariffs are still largely in place by late 2025, the approaching U.S. election cycle (2026 Congressional midterms and the 2028 presidential race) could impact trade policy. A change in administration (post-2028) could lead to a wholesale rethinking of the tariff strategy, potentially ending the “all countries” tariff experiment. However, that is beyond the “earliest” timeframe – realistically, the industry is focusing on 2025–2026 as the window for relief through negotiations.

In summary, the earliest probable relief could come as soon as late 2025, likely through bilateral deals (especially a U.S.-India agreement). Trade talks are ongoing, and industry stakeholders are lobbying hard for a resolution. If successful, we might see the 27% India tariff reversed and perhaps the universal 10% base tariff lowered for key trade partners by early 2026. On the other hand, if negotiations falter, the tariffs could remain in force indefinitely. One telling quote from a U.S. manufacturer was: “I don’t think the 26% tariff on India will ever go away completely. Once governments get a hold of money, they never give it up.”. This cynicism reflects that tariffs, once imposed, can be stubborn. The Phase One trade deal with China (2020) showed that even partial agreements may leave many tariffs intact. Thus, the industry should prepare for the possibility that these tariffs persist through 2025 and into 2026, with only gradual or partial rollback if trade negotiations bear fruit.

How Soon Will the Industry Feel the Effects?

The impacts of the tariffs will be felt on different timelines by different parts of the industry, but many effects will be apparent almost immediately in 2025:

• Immediate Impact (Weeks 1–4): Importers and wholesalers are feeling the impact now. As soon as the tariffs took effect (early April 2025), any new shipment arriving at U.S. ports incurs the duty. Diamond and gem importers have suddenly been billed tens or hundreds of thousands in tariffs for goods that used to clear at 0%. Many have paused or slowed imports to figure out pricing and logistics. This means by April and May 2025, there may already be shortages or delays in certain new stock. Suppliers might hold off sending goods or reroute shipments as they navigate the new rules. Manufacturers in the U.S. who rely on continuous import of stones will see their costs jump immediately and will start adjusting quotes for new orders. We can expect some wholesale price lists to rise within weeks of the tariff implementation.
• Short Term (1–3 months): By June 2025, retailers will start noticing fewer memos and higher prices from suppliers. Many jewelers carry some inventory, so they won’t run out overnight, but as they try to replenish popular items or loose stones, they will encounter the new pricing. The industry practice of pricing in catalogs or price books (especially for diamonds) will be updated. In the diamond market, prices might adjust: traders could attempt to pass some cost back to producers by bidding lower for rough or negotiated discounts on polished. (Indeed, there is speculation that rough diamond prices may need to drop ~6% to compensate for a 5–6% tariff and keep the pipeline moving.) However, such adjustments won’t cover the full tariff – some of it will indeed be passed to end prices. By summer wedding season, custom ring orders that involve newly imported diamonds or platinum will come at the new higher cost. Consumers placing orders in June might be quoted higher than they would have in March.
• Medium Term (3–6 months): By Fall 2025, virtually the entire industry will be operating under the new cost structure. Any buffer of pre-tariff inventory will largely be gone after the summer sales. The holiday season inventory (which retailers start preparing in late summer) will be procured at tariff-affected prices. Thus, by the 2025 holiday season, consumers will definitely feel it – prices for many diamond jewelry pieces could be easily 10-20% higher than a year prior due to the combined effect of tariffs and normal inflation. Domestically made jewelry might start gaining shelf space in stores (as a strategic move to mitigate tariffs), but those domestic pieces still incorporate expensive imported stones, so the retail prices will reflect that. We might also see the effects of any retaliatory foreign tariffs in this timeframe: for instance, if the EU slaps tariffs on U.S. jewelry exports in retaliation, some American jewelry companies that export (there are a few high-end brands and watch companies) could see their overseas sales drop. That is a secondary effect but part of the overall picture.
• Longer Term (6–12 months): If the tariffs persist into 2026 without relief, the impacts deepen. The jewelry supply chain will have reorganized as much as it can – sourcing patterns will have shifted (maybe more gems via alternate countries), some overseas suppliers might have opened finishing operations in the U.S. to bypass tariffs, etc. But these workarounds only mitigate so much. The core outcome is higher costs and likely reduced demand. By early 2026, the industry may contract somewhat – less volume of goods moving because some consumers were priced out or chose to spend on other luxury goods (travel, electronics, etc.). The psychological effect on consumers of seeing significantly higher jewelry prices for the same products could depress sales. On the manufacturing side, if certain tariffs get partially lifted by late 2025 (a big “if”), the industry might see relief and stabilization by mid-2026. However, any reversal would take time to filter down: if, say, a deal in November 2025 removes the diamond tariff, it might take a couple months for suppliers to adjust prices back down and for retailers to stock up for a rebound.

In practical terms, the jewelry industry is already feeling the pinch now (spring 2025), and consumers will start feeling it within a few months. By the end of 2025, the effects will be fully evident in retail price tags and possibly in sales figures. As JA’s CEO succinctly put it, “If American consumers are facing increased costs—on top of existing inflation—they are more likely to cut back on discretionary spending such as jewelry.” That behavior change can happen quickly as prices rise. We anticipate the “sticker shock” for consumers will begin over the summer and by the holiday shopping season of 2025, the tariff impact will be unmistakable.

12-Month Price Increase Projections (Month-by-Month)

Based on the current tariff regime and prevailing inflation trends, we project that fine jewelry retail prices in the U.S. will increase steadily over the next year. The table below provides a month-by-month projection of retail price inflation for fine jewelry, i.e. how much higher prices are expected to be compared to today. These projections assume the tariffs remain in effect through the period and that general inflation for jewelry continues around its recent baseline (~3–4% annually), compounded by the new tariff costs. Actual outcomes will vary, but this gives an indicative trend:

Month Projected Increase in Fine Jewelry Prices (YoY)

April 2025+2% (initial adjustment; minimal consumer impact as some pre-tariff stock is sold)

May 2025+4% (prices start creeping up as new imports with tariffs enter inventories)

June 2025+6% (notable rise; many retailers update price tags for new stock)

July 2025+7% (peak of wedding season – higher diamond costs now fully reflected)

August 2025+8% (steady inflation; colored gem jewelry sees increases as replenishment occurs)

September 2025+9% (heading into holiday inventory build, most products now carry tariff-inflated costs)

October 2025+10% (prices about 10% higher than a year ago on average; retailers may try holiday promotions, but base prices are up)

November 2025+10% (similar to Oct; holiday shopping begins – consumers notice higher prices vs last year)

December 2025+11% (holiday peak; some retailers might slightly trim margins to encourage sales, but overall prices are significantly up YoY)

January 2026+11% (post-holiday; any new tariffs or adjustments could change outlook, but assuming status quo, high prices persist)

February 2026+12% (one year since pre-tariff era; comparisons now fully reflect tariff impact; jewelry CPI up ~12% vs Feb 2025)

March 2026+12% (if no policy change, prices plateau around 10–15% higher than before tariffs)

Assumptions: These projections are year-over-year percentage increases in retail prices for fine jewelry. We’ve assumed baseline inflation (about 3-4% for jewelry, per recent CPI data) plus an incremental impact from tariffs that builds to roughly an additional 7-8% over the year. Initially, the tariff impact is partial (as old inventory buffers prices), but by the end of the year, we expect cumulative ~10-12% price inflation in fine jewelry due largely to tariffs. For context, the “jewelry and watches” CPI was up ~3.8% year-on-year as of early 2025 before tariffs. With tariffs, we are forecasting roughly three times the normal inflation rate in this category at the peak.

Important caveats: If trade negotiations lead to an early tariff reduction, these price increases would moderate in late 2025 (perhaps prices would stabilize or even tick down if tariffs are removed). Conversely, if tariffs provoke significant currency shifts (e.g. exporting countries devalue their currency to offset tariffs) or if suppliers absorb more cost, the pass-through to retail might be a bit less. However, given the scale of these tariffs, a substantial pass-through to consumer prices is expected.

In practical terms, consumers should anticipate that a fine jewelry item that cost $1,000 last year might cost around $1,100–$1,150 by this time next year, under current trends. Higher-end pieces that are very diamond- or gemstone-heavy could see even larger jumps (since a 27% tariff on a $10,000 diamond is $2,700). Lower price-point jewelry (or items made before tariffs) might see smaller increases. The 12-month outlook is that prices will climb each month through 2025, potentially leveling off by early 2026 at a new, higher price equilibrium if the trade situation stabilizes.

References: U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Mineral Commodity Summaries / Rapaport News / Reuters / JCK Magazine / Jewelers of America statements / Observatory of Economic Complexity (OEC) / U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics – CPI data